NHL Scorecard

Why the model remains reference-only

The failed validation is useful evidence. It prevents weak historical patterns from becoming customer-facing bets.

No market cleared the bar.Open the studies below to see the instability rather than taking that conclusion on faith.

How did each live reference market grade?Forward outcomes by moneyline, puck line, and total01

Puck line

134 settled3.5%

74-6055.2% hit rate

Total

134 settled-9.8%

60-6747.2% hit rate

Moneyline

134 settled-5.6%

65-6948.5% hit rate

What would need to change?The path from reference model to released market02

A market must show a durable positive edge across separate historical halves, survive significance testing, and then accumulate credible forward results. Until then, NHL remains a transparent scorecard—not a betting product.

Read the full methodology