22 → 14 · +0.07 goals
5-2-2Loading the latest model data…
Reference forecasts · no official picks
A rating here is one number with a unit you already know: goals of margin against a league-average opponent with home ice cancelled out. CAR at +1.01 and CHI at -0.95 means the board would make that game roughly a 2.0-goal margin with home ice cancelled out. Nothing on this page is a bet, a tier, or a price.
The board is rebuilt every day; movement compares it with the stored board from at least a week earlier, never a fresh recomputation of it. The chart samples one board a week.
22 → 14 · +0.07 goals
5-2-219 → 12 · +0.09 goals
4-4-021 → 17 · -0.01 goals
4-3-113 → 19 · -0.05 goals
6-3-116 → 22 · -0.09 goals
3-3-015 → 20 · -0.05 goals
0-4-2The rating reads margins as well as results; in the standings, only results count. When the two rank a team far apart, one of them is about to be corrected - and which one is the only question that matters here.
The rating ranks them #13; in the standings they sit #27. The underlying numbers are ahead of the record.
3-5-1 · +0.09 goalsThe rating ranks them #28; in the standings they sit #14. The record is ahead of the underlying numbers.
5-3-1 · -0.46 goalsThe rating ranks them #25; in the standings they sit #12. The record is ahead of the underlying numbers.
4-2-2 · -0.23 goalsThe rating ranks them #10; in the standings they sit #21. The underlying numbers are ahead of the record.
4-3-2 · +0.12 goals| Rank | Move | Team | Rating | W-L-OT | Title odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | — | CAR | +1.01 | 7-1-1 | 10.3% |
| 2 | ▲ 2 | VGK | +0.73 | 8-2-0 | 6.9% |
| 3 | ▼ 1 | COL | +0.67 | 5-2-1 | 10.7% |
| 4 | ▲ 1 | EDM | +0.55 | 6-1-1 | 8.4% |
| 5 | ▲ 1 | UTA | +0.44 | 6-3-0 | 3.9% |
| 6 | ▼ 3 | OTT | +0.41 | 6-3-0 | 2.9% |
| 7 | — | TBL | +0.36 | 6-2-0 | 6.5% |
| 8 | — | DAL | +0.33 | 4-3-1 | 4.3% |
| 9 | ▲ 1 | MIN | +0.21 | 5-2-1 | 5.5% |
| 10 | ▼ 1 | BUF | +0.12 | 4-3-2 | 2.3% |
| 11 | ▲ 3 | BOS | +0.09 | 7-2-0 | 1.2% |
| 12 | ▲ 7 | NJD | +0.09 | 4-4-0 | 3.1% |
| 13 | ▼ 2 | PIT | +0.09 | 3-5-1 | 1.1% |
| 14 | ▲ 8 | FLA | +0.07 | 5-2-2 | 9.1% |
| 15 | ▲ 2 | STL | +0.03 | 3-4-1 | 0.9% |
| 16 | ▼ 4 | ANA | +0.00 | 4-3-0 | 1.9% |
The same Poisson goal model that produces the NHL forecasts: regulation goals for and against, shots and special teams, each as a recency-weighted average with a 20-game half-life that carries across seasons. Nothing here is fitted separately for the ranking.
Play this team against a league-average opponent, once at home and once away, both rested, and average the two regulation goal margins. Averaging the orientations cancels home ice exactly. Overtime and shootouts are left out: they are close to a coin flip and say little about strength.
Records count an overtime or shootout loss separately (W-L-OT), and the standings rank on points percentage. Title odds are the betting market's Stanley Cup price with the bookmaker margin removed - the market's view, shown beside the model's, never mixed into it.
| 17 | ▲ 4 | MTL | -0.01 | 4-3-1 | 3.3% |
| 18 | — | WSH | -0.05 | 5-3-0 | 6.2% |
| 19 | ▼ 6 | NYR | -0.05 | 6-3-1 | 1.0% |
| 20 | ▼ 5 | LAK | -0.05 | 0-4-2 | 1.7% |
| 21 | ▼ 1 | DET | -0.07 | 3-3-2 | 0.4% |
| 22 | ▼ 6 | CBJ | -0.09 | 3-3-0 | 1.1% |
| 23 | — | NSH | -0.13 | 3-2-3 | 0.6% |
| 24 | — | NYI | -0.16 | 4-3-1 | 0.6% |
| 25 | — | WPG | -0.23 | 4-2-2 | 0.8% |
| 26 | — | PHI | -0.36 | 1-6-3 | 0.5% |
| 27 | ▲ 1 | SJS | -0.39 | 4-3-1 | 1.8% |
| 28 | ▼ 1 | SEA | -0.46 | 5-3-1 | 0.4% |
| 29 | — | TOR | -0.69 | 3-4-2 | 2.4% |
| 30 | ▲ 1 | CGY | -0.75 | 1-6-0 | 0.1% |
| 31 | ▼ 1 | VAN | -0.83 | 2-7-1 | 0.1% |
| 32 | — | CHI | -0.95 | 3-6-0 | 0.2% |
As of 2026-10-18 · movement vs 2026-10-13. A ranking, not a pick.