Reference forecasts · no official picks
Reference forecasts, not picks. The model projects each match's goals and its home/draw/away chances. It has not beaten the closing market, so nothing here is a bet. Every forecast locks before kickoff and today's finished matches stay on the board with the final score.
The highlighted column is the model's call. Market is the no-vig sportsbook consensus at the last capture.
Play these in the ChallengeMost likely score 2–1 · 74% chance of 3+ goals
Most likely score 1–2 · 64% chance of 3+ goals
Most likely score 2–1 · 65% chance of 3+ goals
Most likely score 1–1 · 67% chance of 3+ goals
Most likely score 1–1 · 64% chance of 3+ goals
Most likely score 1–1 · 71% chance of 3+ goals
Most likely score 2–1 · 67% chance of 3+ goals
Most likely score 2–1 · 66% chance of 3+ goals
Most likely score 1–1 · 61% chance of 3+ goals
Most likely score 1–1 · 66% chance of 3+ goals
Most likely score 1–1 · 64% chance of 3+ goals
Most likely score 1–1 · 61% chance of 3+ goals
Most likely score 1–1 · 66% chance of 3+ goals
Most likely score 1–1 · 65% chance of 3+ goals
Most likely score 1–1 · 67% chance of 3+ goals
The 10 biggest gaps between the model's probability for the side it calls and the no-vig market price for that same side, out of 15 priced fixtures. A gap is a disagreement, not an edge — every tested model-versus-market threshold on this league lost money.
| Match | Kickoff | DNB research |
|---|---|---|
| Atlanta United FC vs Chicago Fire | Oct 24, 7:30 PM EDT | No side clears the 3.0% research gate |
| Orlando City SC vs New York City FC | Oct 24, 7:30 PM EDT | Orlando City SC · betonlineag 1.72 · +12.4% expected return |
| Real Salt Lake vs St. Louis City SC | Oct 24, 8:30 PM EDT | Real Salt Lake · bovada 1.95 · +3.9% expected return |