MLS Power Rankings

THE WHOLE LEAGUE, IN GOALS · Oct 18

Every team, rated against nobody in particular.

A rating here is one number with a unit you already know: goals of margin against a league-average opponent on a neutral pitch. Inter Miami at +0.91 and Sporting Kansas City at -0.97 means the board would make that game roughly a 1.9-goal margin on a neutral pitch. Nothing on this page is a bet, a tier, or a price.

As of 2026-10-18OCT 1830 teams rated

Movement

Who moved.

The board is rebuilt every day; movement compares it with the stored board from at least a week earlier, never a fresh recomputation of it. The chart samples one board a week.

Toronto FC▲ 2

22 → 20 · -0.21 goals

7-12-10

Nashville SC▲ 1

3 → 2 · +0.86 goals

20-6-3

Philadelphia Union▲ 1

5 → 4 · +0.57 goals

13-6-10

Portland Timbers▼ 2

20 → 22 · -0.22 goals

9-6-14

Vancouver Whitecaps▼ 1

2 → 3 · +0.84 goals

15-7-7

Los Angeles FC▼ 1

4 → 5 · +0.56 goals

12-9-9

The argument

Where the rating and the table disagree.

The rating reads margins as well as results; in the table, only results count. When the two rank a team far apart, one of them is about to be corrected - and which one is the only question that matters here.

San Diego FC12 places apart

The rating ranks them #8; in the table they sit #20. The underlying numbers are ahead of the record.

8-9-12 · +0.18 goals

New York City11 places apart

The rating ranks them #9; in the table they sit #20. The underlying numbers are ahead of the record.

8-9-12 · +0.18 goals

Columbus Crew10 places apart

The rating ranks them #15; in the table they sit #25. The underlying numbers are ahead of the record.

9-5-15 · +0.04 goals

Minnesota United10 places apart

The rating ranks them #16; in the table they sit #26. The underlying numbers are ahead of the record.

7-10-12 · -0.04 goals

The board

All 30.

Rank	Move	Team	Rating	W-D-L	Pts
1	—	Inter Miami	+0.91	14-10-5	52
2	▲ 1	Nashville SC	+0.86	20-6-3	66
3	▼ 1	Vancouver Whitecaps	+0.84	15-7-7	52
4	▲ 1	Philadelphia Union	+0.57	13-6-10	45
5	▼ 1	Los Angeles FC	+0.56	12-9-9	45
6	—	Chicago Fire	+0.31	14-6-9	48
7	—	Charlotte	+0.21	13-7-9	46
8	▲ 1	San Diego FC	+0.18	8-9-12	33
9	▼ 1	New York City	+0.18	8-9-12	33
10	—	St. Louis City	+0.18	14-9-6	51
11	—	Seattle Sounders	+0.14	11-8-10	41
12	—	FC Dallas	+0.12	14-8-7	50
13	—	San Jose Earthquakes	+0.08	13-8-8	47
14	—	New England Revolution	+0.04	15-4-10	49
15	—

Method

What is actually being weighted.

A separate model

The match forecasts come from feature models that produce no single number per team, so this board is its own model: a Dixon-Coles fit of an attack and a defence rating for every side, over this season's and last season's MLS results. That is why it can disagree with a match forecast.

Recent matches count more

Every match is weighted by how long ago it was played - a result from a year ago counts a little over half as much as last weekend's - so last season is a prior, not the verdict. A promoted side is rated on this season alone.

The question

Play this team against a league-average side, once at home and once away, and average the two expected goal margins, which cancels home advantage. Results come from Football-Data, which can post a few days late, so the newest matches may not be in yet.