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Reference forecasts · no official picks
Each fixture is locked when first published and never rewritten. In-progress scores are informational; accuracy, error, and exact-score results move only after a final whistle.
This is not an official pick and has no retroactive rows. A fixed Dixon–Coles low-score correction (rho -0.09) tests Draw only when its corrected probability makes the best captured pre-kickoff price positive value. The rule and threshold stay frozen while evidence collects.
| Match | Locked Draw | Model | Expected value | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlotte FC at Portland TimbersOct 24, 10:30 PM EDT | FanDuel · 4.30 | 23.5% | +1.1% | Pending |
| San Jose Earthquakes at FC DallasOct 24, 8:30 PM EDT | BetRivers · 4.20 | 24.6% | +3.4% | Pending |
| Inter Miami CF at New York Red BullsOct 24, 5:30 PM EDT | FanDuel · 4.50 | 24.1% | +8.3% | Pending |
| Toronto FC at Columbus Crew SCOct 24, 3:30 PM EDT | Fanatics · 4.50 | 22.3% | +0.4% | Pending |
| Nashville SC at CF MontrealOct 24, 1:30 PM EDT | Bovada · 4.35 | 23.0% | +0.1% | Pending |
| Colorado Rapids at Portland TimbersOct 17, 10:30 PM EDT | FanDuel · 4.00 | 25.2% | +0.8% | Won |
| CF Montreal at Seattle Sounders FCOct 17, 10:30 PM EDT | FanDuel · 4.80 | 22.2% | +6.6% | Won |
| Nashville SC at San Jose EarthquakesOct 17, 10:30 PM EDT | FanDuel · 4.00 | 25.3% | +1.1% | Won |
| Vancouver Whitecaps FC at Austin FCOct 17, 8:30 PM EDT | BetRivers · 4.20 | 25.0% | +5.0% | Lost |
| Toronto FC at New York Red BullsOct 17, 7:30 PM EDT | Bovada · 4.55 | 22.4% | +2.0% | Lost |
| Inter Miami CF at Atlanta United FCOct 17, 7:30 PM EDT | BetRivers · 4.30 | 24.6% | +5.9% | Lost |
| Portland Timbers at LA GalaxyOct 14, 10:30 PM EDT | FanDuel · 4.20 | 24.8% | +4.2% | Lost |
| Austin FC at Los Angeles FCOct 14, 10:30 PM EDT | FanDuel · 5.10 | 23.4% | +19.5% | Lost |
| San Jose Earthquakes at Real Salt LakeOct 14, 9:30 PM EDT | FanDuel · 4.20 | 25.4% | +6.9% | Won |
| Philadelphia Union at Chicago FireOct 14, 8:30 PM EDT | FanDuel · 4.10 | 24.7% | +1.4% | Lost |
| Sporting Kansas City at Nashville SCOct 14, 8:30 PM EDT | FanDuel · 6.00 | 19.6% | +17.5% | Lost |
| New England Revolution at FC CincinnatiOct 14, 7:30 PM EDT | FanDuel · 4.20 | 24.0% | +1.0% | Lost |
| New York City FC at Inter Miami CFOct 14, 7:30 PM EDT | FanDuel · 5.10 | 23.4% | +19.3% | Lost |
| Charlotte FC at Columbus Crew SCOct 14, 7:30 PM EDT | BetOnline.ag · 4.48 | 24.1% | +7.9% | Lost |
| LA Galaxy at St. Louis City SCOct 11, 7:00 PM EDT | BetOnline.ag · 5.15 | 19.8% | +1.9% | Lost |
Reaching 200 settled candidates across at least 2 seasons only triggers a review. It never promotes the experiment automatically.
Each dot is a confidence band, sized by how many forecasts landed in it, with its 95% interval. Dots below the dashed line claimed more than they delivered. Hover a dot for the band's numbers.
Every graded forecast in date order — green correct, red missed — over the running accuracy they add up to. The line ends at 40.6%. Hover any match for what the model called and how sure it was.
| Reference tier | Settled | Model said | Actually right | Confidence gap | Return / unit | Total-goals error | Exact score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Higher confidence | 49 | 60.1% | 49.0% | -11.1 pts | −25.5%35 of 49 priced | 1.41 | 8.2% |
| Standard confidence | 91 | 49.6% | 42.9% | -6.7 pts | −33.1%42 of 91 priced | 1.44 | 15.4% |
| Lower confidence | 57 | 41.2% | 29.8% | -11.3 pts | +17.7%35 of 57 priced | 1.11 | 17.5% |
Tiers are descriptive bands of the model's own certainty, not edges or grades. A tier marked “too few to read” has fewer than 30 settled forecasts, where a two-match swing moves the accuracy by double digits.
Return / unit stakes one flat unit on the home, draw, or away price with the highest positive model expected return on the last captured board before the forecast locked. A draw wins when Draw is the selected ticket; it is never treated as a push in this market. Prices seen only after publication are excluded. Because this value rule was declared after the earliest forecasts, its current history is descriptive; future locked tickets are the real test.
| Match | Called | Confidence | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Columbus Crew SC at FC Cincinnati | FC Cincinnati | 53.6% | 2–0final | Missed |
| CF Montreal at Seattle Sounders FC | Seattle Sounders FC | 59.3% | 1–1final | Missed |
| San Diego FC at LA Galaxy | LA Galaxy | 48.6% | 2–2final | Missed |
| Nashville SC at San Jose Earthquakes | Nashville SC | 38.6% | 1–1final | Missed |
| Colorado Rapids at Portland Timbers | Portland Timbers | 44.7% | 0–0final | Missed |
| Real Salt Lake at Sporting Kansas City | Sporting Kansas City | 48.2% | 3–1final | Missed |
| Vancouver Whitecaps FC at Austin FC | Vancouver Whitecaps FC | 41.0% | 2–1final | Correct |
| FC Dallas at Houston Dynamo | Houston Dynamo | 46.2% | 2–2final | Missed |
| Toronto FC at New York Red Bulls | New York Red Bulls | 50.5% | 2–0final | Missed |
| D.C. United at Orlando City SC | Orlando City SC | 55.2% | 1–4final | Correct |
| Los Angeles FC at New York City FC |
| New York City FC |
| 46.0% |
| 1–1final |
| Missed |
| Inter Miami CF at Atlanta United FC | Atlanta United FC | 39.4% | 3–1final | Missed |
| Chicago Fire at New England Revolution | New England Revolution | 46.5% | 0–1final | Correct |
| St. Louis City SC at Minnesota United FC | Minnesota United FC | 40.1% | 2–3final | Correct |
| Charlotte FC at Philadelphia Union | Philadelphia Union | 64.5% | 2–2final | Missed |
| Houston Dynamo at San Diego FC | San Diego FC | 47.7% | 3–3final | Missed |
| Austin FC at Los Angeles FC | Los Angeles FC | 55.8% | 1–3final | Correct |
| Portland Timbers at LA Galaxy | LA Galaxy | 43.6% | 0–2final | Correct |
| San Jose Earthquakes at Real Salt Lake | Real Salt Lake | 44.4% | 1–1final | Missed |
| Minnesota United FC at Colorado Rapids | Colorado Rapids | 54.5% | 2–2final | Missed |
Confidence is what the model assigned to the outcome it called, before kickoff. Reading it beside the result is the fastest way to see whether a miss was a close call or a confident error.