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Reference forecasts · no official picks
The failed validation is useful evidence. It prevents weak historical patterns from becoming customer-facing bets.
| Market | Threshold | Sample half | Bets | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | 0.02 | first half | 442 | 0.1% |
| Moneyline | 0.04 | first half | 391 | 2.0% |
| Moneyline | 0.06 | first half | 335 | 5.3% |
| Moneyline | 0.08 | first half | 287 | 4.2% |
| Moneyline | 0.1 | first half | 252 | 7.2% |
| Spread | 1 | first half | 1781 | -6.8% |
| Spread | 2 | first half | 1399 | -4.8% |
| Spread | 3 | first half | 1051 | -5.0% |
| Spread | 4 | first half | 787 | -5.9% |
| Spread | 5 | first half | 549 | -8.0% |
| Spread | 6 | first half | 363 | -9.8% |
| Total | 2 | first half | 1726 | -2.1% |
| Total | 4 | first half | 1312 | -0.2% |
| Total | 6 | first half | 936 | 1.3% |
| Total | 8 | first half | 602 | 3.7% |
| Total | 10 | first half | 366 | 6.4% |
| Spread | 1 | second half | 1742 | -4.4% |
| Spread | 2 | second half | 1377 | -4.3% |
| Spread | 3 | second half | 1032 | -4.6% |
| Spread | 4 | second half | 737 | -4.9% |
| Spread | 5 | second half | 509 | -4.9% |
| Spread | 6 | second half | 351 | -4.5% |
| Total | 2 | second half | 1580 | -7.1% |
| Total | 4 | second half | 1081 | -9.2% |
| Total | 6 | second half | 663 | -11.6% |
| Total | 8 | second half | 373 | -14.3% |
| Total | 10 | second half | 203 | -11.1% |
A market must show a durable positive edge across separate historical halves, survive significance testing, and then accumulate credible forward results. Until then, NBA remains a transparent scorecard—not a betting product.
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