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Reference forecasts · no official picks
Every forecast was locked before kickoff. Final scores grade the match-result call, predicted score, and total-goals estimate without rewriting the original forecast.
This is not an official pick and has no retroactive rows. A fixed Dixon–Coles low-score correction (rho -0.09) tracks Draw only when the corrected probability makes the best captured pre-kickoff price positive value. The rule and threshold stay frozen while evidence collects.
| Match | Locked Draw | Model | Expected value | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal at LiverpoolNov 1 | FanDuel · 3.70 | 28.3% | +4.5% | Pending |
| Fulham at Aston VillaOct 31 | FanDuel · 3.70 | 27.3% | +1.1% | Pending |
| Everton at ArsenalOct 24 | FanDuel · 4.80 | 22.7% | +9.0% | Pending |
| Sunderland at BournemouthOct 18 | BetRivers · 3.75 | 28.1% | +5.2% | Lost |
| Liverpool at BrentfordOct 17 | FanDuel · 3.80 | 27.8% | +5.7% | Lost |
| Chelsea at EvertonOct 17 | Fanatics · 3.80 | 27.3% | +3.8% | Lost |
| Bournemouth at ChelseaOct 10 | FanDuel · 4.20 | 27.6% | +16.0% | Lost |
| Brentford at Aston VillaOct 10 | BetRivers · 3.70 | 27.1% | +0.3% | Won |
Reaching 200 settled candidates across at least 2 seasons only triggers a review. It never promotes the experiment automatically.
Accuracy is 39.0% versus 40.7% for always choosing the most common result in this sample. The model has made 0 draw calls; log loss 1.028 grades the probability assigned to every home, draw, and away result. This is a small forward sample, not proof of an edge.
The original elastic-net and extra-trees specifications remain unchanged. A 10% model-versus-market difference enters the shadow ledger; it is never a customer pick.
The page shows no reference rather than filling gaps with stale or one-sided prices.
Promotion requires 200 qualified selections, positive mean closing-line value with its uncertainty interval above zero, and consistency across multiple monthly windows.
Accuracy ends at 39.0%. The vertical marker is the most-common-result baseline (40.7%), which does not reward a model merely for ignoring draws.
| Date | Match | Model call | Value ticket | Projected score | Final score | Grade | Paper P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18 | Arsenal at Nott'm Forest | Arsenal47.3% confidence | Arsenal47.3% model probability | Nott'm Forest 1–2 Arsenal1.08–1.51 expected | Nott'm Forest 0–1 ArsenalArsenal won · total error 1.59 | Correct | +0.59u1.59 · fanatics |
| Oct 18 | Sunderland at Bournemouth | Bournemouth47.1% confidence | Bournemouth47.1% model probability | Bournemouth 2–1 Sunderland1.54–1.12 expected | Bournemouth 2–0 SunderlandBournemouth won · total error 0.66 | Correct | +0.74u1.74 · fanatics |
| Oct 18 | Crystal Palace at Brighton | Brighton62.9% confidence | Brighton62.9% model probability | Brighton 2–1 Crystal Palace2.04–0.94 expected | Brighton 5–0 Crystal PalaceBrighton won · total error 2.03 | Correct | +0.60u1.60 · mybookieag |
| Oct 18 | Man United at Leeds | Man United45.1% confidence | Man United45.1% model probability | Leeds 1–2 Man United1.26–1.60 expected | Leeds 1–1 Man UnitedFinished level · total error 0.86 | Missed | -1.00u2.14 · mybookieag |
| Oct 17 | Aston Villa at Newcastle | Newcastle37.1% confidence | Newcastle37.1% model probability | Newcastle 1–1 Aston Villa1.30–1.29 expected | Newcastle 0–1 Aston VillaAston Villa won · total error 1.60 | Missed | -1.00u2.10 · fanatics |
| Oct 17 | Ipswich at Man City | Man City73.8% confidence | Man City73.8% model probability | Man City 2–1 Ipswich2.44–0.78 expected | Man City 3–2 IpswichMan City won · total error 1.78 | Correct | +0.17u1.17 · mybookieag |
| Oct 17 | Liverpool at Brentford | Liverpool42.3% confidence | Liverpool42.3% model probability | Brentford 1–2 Liverpool1.30–1.51 expected | Brentford 1–2 LiverpoolLiverpool won · total error 0.19 | Correct | +1.40u2.40 · fanduel |
| Oct 17 | Hull at Fulham | Fulham41.5% confidence | Fulham41.5% model probability | Fulham 1–1 Hull1.35–1.15 expected | Fulham 1–0 HullFulham won · total error 1.50 | Correct | +0.50u1.50 · fanatics |
| Oct 17 | Chelsea at Everton | Everton38.4% confidence | Everton38.4% model probability | Everton 1–1 Chelsea1.41–1.36 expected | Everton 0–2 ChelseaChelsea won · total error 0.77 | Missed | -1.00u3.20 · fanatics |
| Oct 12 | Newcastle at Coventry | Newcastle38.5% confidence | Newcastle38.5% model probability | Coventry 1–1 Newcastle1.26–1.33 expected | Coventry 4–1 NewcastleCoventry won · total error 2.41 | Missed | -1.00u2.05 · fanduel |
| Oct 11 | Man City at Liverpool | Man City45.5% confidence | Man City45.5% model probability | Liverpool 1–2 Man City1.29–1.63 expected | Liverpool 0–3 Man CityMan City won · total error 0.08 | Correct | +1.20u2.20 · fanduel |
| Oct 11 | Nott'm Forest at Crystal Palace | Nott'm Forest41.9% confidence | Nott'm Forest41.9% model probability | Crystal Palace 1–1 Nott'm Forest1.24–1.45 expected | Crystal Palace 3–1 Nott'm ForestCrystal Palace won · total error 1.31 | Missed | -1.00u3.10 · fanduel |
| Oct 11 | Everton at Hull | Hull38.9% confidence | Hull38.9% model probability | Hull 1–1 Everton1.34–1.25 expected | Hull 2–2 EvertonFinished level · total error 1.40 | Missed | -1.00u3.80 · mybookieag |
| Oct 10 | Tottenham at Man United | Man United56.6% confidence | Man United56.6% model probability | Man United 2–1 Tottenham1.82–1.00 expected | Man United 1–1 TottenhamFinished level · total error 0.82 | Missed | -1.00u1.62 · fanatics |
| Oct 10 | Bournemouth at Chelsea | Bournemouth38.1% confidence | Bournemouth38.1% model probability | Chelsea 1–1 Bournemouth1.30–1.35 expected | Chelsea 5–1 BournemouthChelsea won · total error 3.34 | Missed | -1.00u4.00 · fanatics |
| Oct 10 | Brighton at Sunderland | Brighton39.7% confidence | Brighton39.7% model probability | Sunderland 1–1 Brighton1.29–1.40 expected | Sunderland 0–2 BrightonBrighton won · total error 0.68 | Correct | +1.35u2.35 · fanatics |
| Oct 10 | Fulham at Ipswich | Fulham49.1% confidence | Fulham49.1% model probability | Ipswich 1–2 Fulham1.11–1.61 expected | Ipswich 2–1 FulhamIpswich won · total error 0.28 | Missed | -1.00u2.35 · fanduel |
| Oct 10 | Brentford at Aston Villa | Aston Villa39.4% confidence | Aston Villa39.4% model probability | Aston Villa 1–1 Brentford1.43–1.34 expected | Aston Villa 2–2 BrentfordFinished level · total error 1.23 | Missed | -1.00u2.85 · fanatics |
| Oct 10 | Leeds at Arsenal | Arsenal69.4% confidence | Arsenal69.4% model probability | Arsenal 2–1 Leeds2.21–0.81 expected | Arsenal 2–1 LeedsArsenal won · total error 0.02 | Correct | +0.29u1.29 · fanatics |
| Sep 20 | Man United at Fulham | Man United40.1% confidence | Man United40.1% model probability | Fulham 1–1 Man United1.29–1.42 expected | Fulham 1–1 Man UnitedFinished level · total error 0.71 | Missed | -1.00u1.93 · fanatics |
| Sep 20 | Sunderland at Man City | Man City65.2% confidence | Man City65.2% model probability | Man City 2–1 Sunderland2.08–0.87 expected | Man City 5–3 SunderlandMan City won · total error 5.05 | Correct | +0.25u1.25 · mybookieag |
| Sep 20 | Crystal Palace at Leeds | Leeds41.2% confidence | Leeds41.2% model probability | Leeds 1–1 Crystal Palace1.36–1.17 expected | Leeds 0–0 Crystal PalaceFinished level · total error 2.52 | Missed | -1.00u2.25 · fanatics |
| Sep 20 | Liverpool at Bournemouth | Bournemouth43.5% confidence | Bournemouth43.5% model probability | Bournemouth 2–1 Liverpool1.52–1.25 expected | Bournemouth 0–1 LiverpoolLiverpool won · total error 1.78 | Missed | -1.00u3.10 · fanatics |
| Sep 19 | Coventry at Nott'm Forest | Nott'm Forest39.1% confidence | Nott'm Forest39.1% model probability | Nott'm Forest 1–1 Coventry1.44–1.36 expected | Nott'm Forest 0–1 CoventryCoventry won · total error 1.80 | Missed | -1.00u1.77 · fanatics |
| Sep 19 | Hull at Newcastle | Newcastle38.4% confidence | Newcastle38.4% model probability | Newcastle 1–1 Hull1.38–1.33 expected | Newcastle 2–1 HullNewcastle won · total error 0.29 | Correct | +0.40u1.40 · fanatics |
| Sep 19 | Arsenal at Brighton | Arsenal38.2% confidence | Arsenal38.2% model probability | Brighton 1–1 Arsenal1.26–1.33 expected | Brighton 3–0 ArsenalBrighton won · total error 0.41 | Missed | -1.00u1.77 · fanatics |
| Sep 19 | Ipswich at Everton | Everton47.7% confidence | Everton47.7% model probability | Everton 2–1 Ipswich1.57–1.12 expected | Everton 1–0 IpswichEverton won · total error 1.69 | Correct | +0.67u1.67 · fanatics |
| Sep 19 | Aston Villa at Tottenham | Tottenham40.9% confidence | Tottenham40.9% model probability | Tottenham 1–1 Aston Villa1.38–1.21 expected | Tottenham 2–3 Aston VillaAston Villa won · total error 2.41 | Missed | -1.00u2.40 · fanduel |
| Sep 18 | Chelsea at Brentford | Chelsea40.7% confidence | Chelsea40.7% model probability | Brentford 1–1 Chelsea1.18–1.35 expected | Brentford 3–0 ChelseaBrentford won · total error 0.47 | Missed | -1.00u2.50 · fanduel |
| Sep 14 | Newcastle at Leeds | Leeds45.8% confidence | Leeds45.8% model probability | Leeds 2–1 Newcastle1.60–1.24 expected | Leeds 4–1 NewcastleLeeds won · total error 2.16 | Correct | +1.50u2.50 · fanatics |
| Sep 13 | Man City at Man United | Man City39.4% confidence | Man City39.4% model probability | Man United 1–2 Man City1.47–1.54 expected | Man United 0–1 Man CityMan City won · total error 2.01 | Correct | +1.11u2.11 · mybookieag |
| Sep 13 | Brighton at Coventry | Brighton56.4% confidence | Brighton56.4% model probability | Coventry 1–2 Brighton0.98–1.79 expected | Coventry 0–5 BrightonBrighton won · total error 2.23 | Correct | +0.82u1.82 · bovada |
| Sep 12 | Arsenal at Sunderland | Arsenal43.8% confidence | Arsenal43.8% model probability | Sunderland 1–1 Arsenal1.14–1.44 expected | Sunderland 0–2 ArsenalArsenal won · total error 0.58 | Correct | +0.52u1.52 · bovada |
| Sep 12 | Everton at Tottenham | Tottenham40.8% confidence | Tottenham40.8% model probability | Tottenham 1–1 Everton1.47–1.32 expected | Tottenham 0–0 EvertonFinished level · total error 2.80 | Missed | -1.00u2.00 · fanduel |
| Sep 12 | Brentford at Bournemouth | Bournemouth47.5% confidence | Bournemouth47.5% model probability | Bournemouth 2–1 Brentford1.66–1.22 expected | Bournemouth 2–2 BrentfordFinished level · total error 1.12 | Missed | -1.00u2.60 · fanduel |
| Sep 12 | Nott'm Forest at Aston Villa | Aston Villa44.2% confidence | Aston Villa44.2% model probability | Aston Villa 2–1 Nott'm Forest1.56–1.27 expected | Aston Villa 1–2 Nott'm ForestNott'm Forest won · total error 0.17 | Missed | -1.00u1.96 · betrivers |
| Sep 12 | Fulham at Liverpool | Liverpool49.5% confidence | Liverpool49.5% model probability | Liverpool 2–1 Fulham1.69–1.17 expected | Liverpool 0–0 FulhamFinished level · total error 2.87 | Missed | -1.00u1.47 · bovada |
| Sep 12 | Hull at Chelsea | Chelsea49.9% confidence | Chelsea49.9% model probability | Chelsea 2–1 Hull1.54–1.00 expected | Chelsea 2–2 HullFinished level · total error 1.47 | Missed | -1.00u1.26 · bovada |
| Sep 12 | Ipswich at Crystal Palace | Crystal Palace47.3% confidence | Crystal Palace47.3% model probability | Crystal Palace 2–1 Ipswich1.61–1.18 expected | Crystal Palace 2–3 IpswichIpswich won · total error 2.22 | Missed | -1.00u1.95 · fanatics |
| Sep 6 | Chelsea at Arsenal | Arsenal67.6% confidence | Arsenal67.6% model probability | Arsenal 2–1 Chelsea2.17–0.85 expected | Arsenal 2–1 ChelseaArsenal won · total error 0.02 | Correct | +0.71u1.71 · fanatics |
| Sep 6 | Man United at Everton | Man United46.8% confidence | Man United46.8% model probability | Everton 1–2 Man United1.38–1.77 expected | Everton 2–2 Man UnitedFinished level · total error 0.85 | Missed | -1.00u2.30 · fanatics |
| Sep 5 | Aston Villa at Hull | Hull37.9% confidence | Hull37.9% model probability | Hull 1–1 Aston Villa1.32–1.27 expected | Hull 0–0 Aston VillaFinished level · total error 2.59 | Missed | -1.00u4.10 · fanatics |
| Sep 5 | Tottenham at Nott'm Forest | Nott'm Forest41.1% confidence | Nott'm Forest41.1% model probability | Nott'm Forest 1–1 Tottenham1.47–1.31 expected | Nott'm Forest 0–0 TottenhamFinished level · total error 2.78 | Missed | -1.00u2.55 · betrivers |
| Sep 5 | Crystal Palace at Fulham | Fulham49.1% confidence | Fulham49.1% model probability | Fulham 2–1 Crystal Palace1.58–1.07 expected | Fulham 2–3 Crystal PalaceCrystal Palace won · total error 2.36 | Missed | -1.00u2.33 · lowvig |
| Sep 5 | Coventry at Man City | Man City75.8% confidence | Man City75.8% model probability | Man City 2–1 Coventry2.37–0.65 expected | Man City 1–0 CoventryMan City won · total error 2.02 | Correct | +0.19u1.19 · draftkings |
| Sep 5 | Leeds at Brighton | Brighton59.7% confidence | Brighton59.7% model probability | Brighton 2–1 Leeds1.96–1.00 expected | Brighton 1–1 LeedsFinished level · total error 0.97 | Missed | -1.00u1.93 · betonlineag |
| Sep 5 | Sunderland at Brentford | Brentford39.7% confidence | Brentford39.7% model probability | Brentford 1–1 Sunderland1.43–1.32 expected | Brentford 1–1 SunderlandFinished level · total error 0.75 | Missed | -1.00u1.64 · betonlineag |
| Sep 5 | Bournemouth at Newcastle | Bournemouth40.8% confidence | Bournemouth40.8% model probability | Newcastle 1–1 Bournemouth1.31–1.46 expected | Newcastle 2–2 BournemouthFinished level · total error 1.23 | Missed | -1.00u3.20 · fanatics |
| Sep 4 | Liverpool at Ipswich | Liverpool56.5% confidence | Liverpool56.5% model probability | Ipswich 1–2 Liverpool1.09–1.91 expected | Ipswich 0–2 LiverpoolLiverpool won · total error 1.01 | Correct | +0.57u1.57 · draftkings |
| Aug 24 | Chelsea at Fulham | Fulham41.5% confidence | Fulham41.5% model probability | Fulham 1–1 Chelsea1.34–1.13 expected | Fulham 2–3 ChelseaChelsea won · total error 2.54 | Missed | Unpriced |
| Aug 23 | Liverpool at Newcastle | Liverpool43.6% confidence | Liverpool43.6% model probability | Newcastle 1–2 Liverpool1.26–1.53 expected | Newcastle 2–2 LiverpoolFinished level · total error 1.21 | Missed | Unpriced |
| Aug 23 | Aston Villa at Brighton | Brighton47.0% confidence | Brighton47.0% model probability | Brighton 2–1 Aston Villa1.58–1.16 expected | Brighton 4–0 Aston VillaBrighton won · total error 1.26 | Correct | Unpriced |
| Aug 23 | Bournemouth at Man City | Man City57.7% confidence | Man City57.7% model probability | Man City 2–1 Bournemouth1.86–0.99 expected | Man City 2–1 BournemouthMan City won · total error 0.14 | Correct | Unpriced |
| Aug 22 | Tottenham at Brentford | Tottenham43.3% confidence | Tottenham43.3% model probability | Brentford 1–1 Tottenham1.15–1.43 expected | Brentford 3–0 TottenhamBrentford won · total error 0.43 | Missed | Unpriced |
| Aug 22 | Leeds at Nott'm Forest | Nott'm Forest38.5% confidence | Nott'm Forest38.5% model probability | Nott'm Forest 1–1 Leeds1.40–1.35 expected | Nott'm Forest 0–1 LeedsLeeds won · total error 1.75 | Missed | Unpriced |
| Aug 22 | Crystal Palace at Everton | Everton37.3% confidence | Everton37.3% model probability | Everton 1–1 Crystal Palace1.31–1.29 expected | Everton 2–0 Crystal PalaceEverton won · total error 0.59 | Correct | Unpriced |
| Aug 22 | Sunderland at Ipswich | Sunderland48.1% confidence | Sunderland48.1% model probability | Ipswich 1–2 Sunderland1.03–1.50 expected | Ipswich 2–1 SunderlandIpswich won · total error 0.46 | Missed | Unpriced |
| Aug 22 | Man United at Hull | Man United37.9% confidence | Man United37.9% model probability | Hull 1–1 Man United1.37–1.40 expected | Hull 2–0 Man UnitedHull won · total error 0.77 | Missed | Unpriced |
| Aug 21 | Coventry at Arsenal | Arsenal55.2% confidence | Arsenal55.2% model probability | Arsenal 2–1 Coventry1.79–1.03 expected | Arsenal 3–0 CoventryArsenal won · total error 0.17 | Correct | Unpriced |
“Paper P&L” stakes one flat unit on the price-aware value ticket locked before the forecast published — never a later price — and is a record of what the model would have done, not a bet anyone placed. The value ticket compares all three expected returns, so it can select a draw even when draw is not the most likely result. Forecasts published before value-ticket tracking use their original model call. Unpriced rows are left out of ROI rather than counted as scratches. “Model call” is the highest-probability home/draw/away outcome, not an official wager. Projected score uses the frozen pre-match goal model; final score comes from the free results grader.